Incorporating uncertainty from downscaled rainfall projections into climate resilience planning in U.S. cities

Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much ...

Uncertainty in Emissions Projections for Climate Models

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC...

Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

Incorporating Planning into BDI Systems

Many architectures of autonomous agent have been proposed throughout AI research. The most common architectures, BDI, are procedural in that they do no planning, seriously curtailing an agent’s ability to cope with unforeseen events. In this paper, we explore the relationship between propositional planning systems and the process of means-ends reasoning used by BDI agents and define a mapping f...

Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distri...